September 1, 2017 | Page 7 of 8 | Science Of Cycles News and Research

Nanosat Fleet Proposed For Voyage To 300 Asteroids

A fleet of tiny spacecraft could visit over 300 asteroids in just over three years, according to a mission study led by the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The Asteroid Touring Nanosat Fleet concept comprises 50 spacecraft propelled by innovative electric solar wind sails (E-sails) and equipped with instruments to take images and collect spectroscopic data on the composition of the asteroids. Each nanosat would visit six or seven asteroids before returning to Earth to deliver the data. The concept will be presented by Dr Pekka Janhunen at the European Planetary Science Congress (EPSC) 2017 in Riga on Tuesday 19th September.

“Asteroids are very diverse and, to date, we’ve only seen a small number at close range. To understand them better, we need to study a large number in situ. The only way to do this affordably is by using small spacecraft,” says Janhunen.

In the mission scenario, the nanosats flyby their target asteroids at a range of around 1000 kilometres. Each nanosat carries a 4-centimetre telescope capable of imaging the surface of asteroids with a resolution of 100 metres or better. An infrared spectrometer analyses spectral signatures in light reflected or emitted by the asteroid to determine its mineralogy. The instruments can be pointed at the target using two internal reaction wheels inside the nanosats.

“The nanosats could gather a great deal of information about the asteroids they encounter during their tour, including the overall size and shape, whether there are craters on the surface or dust, whether there are any moons, and whether the asteroids are primitive bodies or a rubble pile. They would also gather data on the chemical composition of surface features, such as whether the spectral signature of water is present,” says Janhunen.

E-sails make use of the solar wind – a stream of electrically charged particles emitted from the Sun – to generate efficient propulsion without need for propellant. Thrust is generated by the slow rotation of a tether, attached at one end to a main spacecraft carrying an electron emitter and a high-voltage source and at the other to a small remote unit. The spinning tether completes a rotation in about 50 minutes, tracing out a broad, shallow cone around a centre of mass close to the main spacecraft. By altering its orientation in relation to the solar wind, the nanosat can change thrust and direction.

The thrust generated by E-sails is small; a 5 kilogramme spacecraft with a 20-kilometre tether would give an acceleration of 1 millimetre per second at the distance of the Earth from the Sun. However, calculations show that, on top of the initial boost from launch, this is enough for the spacecraft to complete a tour through the asteroid belt and back to Earth in 3.2 years. Nanosatellites do not have the capacity for a large antenna, so the concept includes a final flyby of Earth to download the data. The overall mission would cost around 60 million Euros, including launch, giving a cost of about 200,000 Euros for each asteroid visited.

“The cost of a conventional, state-of-the-art mission to visit this number of asteroids could run into billions. This mission architecture, using a fleet of nanosats and innovative propulsion, would reduce the cost to just a few hundred thousand Euros per asteroid. Yet the value of the science gathered would be immense,” says Janhunen.

Hurricane Maria Makes Landfall in Dominica as Other Islands Brace for Potential Disaster

Hurricane Maria barreled through the islands that curve through the Caribbean on Monday night as it quickly grew into “a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane” and made landfall in Dominica, the National Weather Service said.

With maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per hour, the storm battered the island of 73,000 people. Ham radio operators reported major damage to buildings, according to the hurricane center, and the island’s prime minister said the roof was ripped off his home.

“I am at the complete mercy of the hurricane,” the prime minister, Roosevelt Skerrit, wrote on Facebook. “House is flooding.” About 10 minutes later, he posted, “I have been rescued.”

Mr. Skerrit told a journalist at the news station Telesur that the island had been devastated.

Early Tuesday, with Maria’s eye having passed over Dominica, the National Hurricane Center downgraded the storm to Category 4. But its winds had diminished only slightly, and the center warned that it could return to Category 5 as it approached the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Residents throughout the Caribbean were preparing for yet another potentially disastrous storm.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Irma, Morgane Guyard fled St. Martin, worried about dwindling food supplies and the chaos on her island after the storm ripped through.

On Monday, she was bracing for Hurricane Maria, which was heading straight for the island that she and hundreds of others had escaped to for sanctuary, Guadeloupe.

“This year we are cursed,” Ms. Guyard, 28, said after a morning of last-minute grocery shopping as the hurricane approached. “When will we be able to breathe again? When will all of the hurricanes stop?”

Some islands still reeling from the impact of Hurricane Irma were bracing late Monday for Round 2, closing schools, stores and just about everything else before the storm made landfall.

More than two dozen people were killed by Irma, and on Monday emergency shelters were beginning to fill up on Guadeloupe, Dominica and Montserrat, as well as on the islands of St. Kitts and Nevis. Those who chose to stay home were busy boarding up their houses, trimming trees or gathering stockpiles of food and water.

Karine Fleury, 47, a psychologist in Martinique, which was also expected to be hit by Maria, said she found out about the storm only on Sunday while shopping for groceries. After that, it was a race to prepare herself — both physically and mentally — for the storm’s landing.

“I know it’s going to be impressive during the storm,” she said. “And when we go out for the first time afterward, seeing the fallen trees and the damage, it’s always scary.”

Though Maria is expected to trace a similar path to Hurricane Irma, some of the islands hit hardest by that storm may be spared. Instead, having escaped the wrath of Irma, Guadeloupe and Dominica were expected to bear the initial brunt of Maria.

But the already storm-battered islands could be affected in other ways. In addition to being the main sanctuary for those evacuating St. Martin, Guadeloupe has also become the staging ground for the relief effort. If the storm hits hard, it could delay or upend the desperately needed aid going to its neighbor.

Though the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean feels exceptional this year, experts say it is not unheard-of. Ten years ago, Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia were all active at the same time. In 1998, four hurricanes — Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl — passed through the Atlantic at once, according to the hurricane research division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Still, the number of serious storms this year is higher than average.

“None of this is unusual in terms of the number; we are in the peak week of the peak month in what was forecast to be an active season,” said Dennis Feltgen, an agency spokesman. “What is horrific is the succession of Category 4 Harvey, Category 4 and 5 Irma and now” Maria.

A typical season has 12 named storms, six of which become hurricanes, with three of those becoming major hurricanes. So far this season, which is more than halfway through, there have been 13 named storms, including seven hurricanes, four which have been major.

The constant threat of storms has created a state of agitation among some residents — and some resistance to making the necessary preparations.

“We’re tired of this,” lamented Stan Musquer, 44, an artist in Guadeloupe who says he has been evacuated three times in his life, forced to move all of his belongings ahead of storms that did not strike as badly as anticipated. “We’re tired of this. It’s stressful.”

Local authorities across the region have implored residents to take the warnings seriously. Having suffered season after season of hurricanes, they are fearful residents will shrug off yet another storm. Mr. Skerrit, Dominica’s prime minister, addressed the tiny nation Monday morning, asking residents to remain calm but be prepared.

“I want to say to Dominicans that this is not a time for heroism,” he said. “This much water in Dominica is dangerous given our terrain, and therefore persons should not wait for something to happen in order to take action.”

Preparation for many Caribbean islanders has, by now, become second nature.

“I stocked up as much as possible with fresh water and dried foods,” said Michele Henderson, a musician on Dominica. “I secured my dogs, rabbits and chickens. We boarded up the windows and we are hunkered down in our basement apartment.”

Others said that while they were not worried, they were still taking the proper precautions.

“I’ve seen lots of hurricanes and know what to expect,” said Melissa Roberts, 36, on Dominica. “You stay home, buckle down and wait for it to clear.”

Impending storms are often likened to past storms, especially in the minds of survivors. For those on St. Martin, Hurricane Luis in 1995 was the “big one” until Irma blasted apart their island. On the island of Montserrat, meanwhile, Hurricane Hugo looms large.

“After Hugo, my house was full of glass and coconuts,” said Susan Edgecombe, who runs Tradewinds Real Estate on the island and recalled the attitude that existed before that hurricane in 1989. “Everyone said: ‘There’s not been a hurricane in over 60 years. Don’t stress.’”

“Yeah right,” she snapped. “We didn’t get power for over three months, so now I am the prep queen.”

On the island of Antigua, which Hurricane Irma skirted while destroying nearby Barbuda, Dr. Jillia Bird, an optometrist, said she had once again gone through her familiar pre-hurricane motions, closing storm shutters, moving items off the floor in case of flooding, covering beds with shower curtains and towels to prevent soaking, packing up valuables and moving from her wooden house to her mother’s storm-tested 60-year-old concrete house.

Dr. Bird also chilled her merlot – “in case of power loss,” she said – and found time for an act of generosity toward friends of hers in the British Virgin Islands, which was slammed by Hurricane Irma: She bought credit for their cellphones, “as a kindness gesture as they face another difficult night,” she said.

In St. Kitts and Nevis, the storm has particularly cruel timing, landing on the eve of the 34th anniversary of the island’s independence. The good news for residents there, however, was that most of them had already prepared for Irma, and so had less to do to prepare for Maria.

“Well, following the recent passage of Hurricane Irma, I still have most things in place, like candles, flashlight with batteries and important items in plastic bags,” said Precious Mills, a resident. “I would say that I have basic measures in place to weather the storm.”

While the island escaped largely unscathed from Irma, some homes sustained damage. For John Webster, who lives in the affected area of Newton Ground, that means the patchwork fixes he made to his roof after Irma will have to do for now.

“I had planned to properly fix it, but I am going to wait until this storm has passed,” he said.

Changes In Earth’s Crust Caused Oxygen To Fill The Atmosphere

Scientists have long wondered how Earth’s atmosphere filled with oxygen. UBC geologist Matthijs Smit and research partner Klaus Mezger may have found the answer in continental rocks that are billions of years old.

“Oxygenation was waiting to happen,” said Smit. “All it may have needed was for the continents to mature.”

Earth’s early atmosphere and oceans were devoid of free oxygen, even though tiny cyanobacteria were producing the gas as a byproduct of photosynthesis. Free oxygen is oxygen that isn’t combined with other elements such as carbon or nitrogen, and aerobic organisms need it to live. A change occurred about three billion years ago, when small regions containing free oxygen began to appear in the oceans. Then, about 2.4 billion years ago, oxygen in the atmosphere suddenly increased by about 10,000 times in just 200 million years. This period, known as the Great Oxidation Event, changed chemical reactions on the surface of the Earth completely.

Smit, a professor in UBC’s department of earth, ocean & atmospheric sciences, and colleague, professor Klaus Mezger of the University of Bern, were aware that the composition of continents also changed during this period. They set out to find a link, looking closely at records detailing the geochemistry of shales and igneous rock types from around the world — more than 48,000 rocks dating back billions of years.

“It turned out that a staggering change occurred in the composition of continents at the same time free oxygen was starting to accumulate in the oceans,” Smit said.

Before oxygenation, continents were composed of rocks rich in magnesium and low in silica — similar to what can be found today in places like Iceland and the Faroe Islands. But more importantly, those rocks contained a mineral called olivine. When olivine comes into contact with water, it initiates chemical reactions that consume oxygen and lock it up. That is likely what happened to the oxygen produced by cyanobacteria early in Earth’s history.

However, as the continental crust evolved to a composition more like today’s, olivine virtually disappeared. Without that mineral to react with water and consume oxygen, the gas was finally allowed to accumulate. Oceans eventually became saturated, and oxygen crossed into the atmosphere.

“It really appears to have been the starting point for life diversification as we know it,” Smit said. “After that change, the Earth became much more habitable and suitable for the evolution of complex life, but that needed some trigger mechanism, and that’s what we may have found.”

As for what caused the composition of continents to change, that is the subject of ongoing study. Smit notes that modern plate tectonics began at around the same time, and many scientists theorize that there is a connection.

Smit and Mezger published their findings today in the journal Nature Geoscience. The research was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council.

Cosmic Velocity Web: Motions Of Thousands Of Galaxies Mapped

The cosmic web — the distribution of matter on the largest scales in the universe — has usually been defined through the distribution of galaxies. Now, a new study by a team of astronomers from France, Israel and Hawaii demonstrates a novel approach. Instead of using galaxy positions, they mapped the motions of thousands of galaxies. Because galaxies are pulled toward gravitational attractors and move away from empty regions, these motions allowed the team to locate the denser matter in clusters and filaments and the absence of matter in regions called voids.

Matter was distributed almost homogeneously in the very early universe, with only miniscule variations in density. Over the 14-billion-year history of the universe, gravity has been acting to pull matter together in some places and leave other places more and more empty. Today, the matter forms a network of knots and connecting filaments referred to as the cosmic web. Most of this matter is in a mysterious form, the so-called “dark matter.” Galaxies have formed at the highest concentrations of matter and act as lighthouses illuminating the underlying cosmic structure.

The newly defined cosmic velocity web defines the structure of the universe from velocity information alone. In those regions with abundant observations, the structure of the velocity web and the web inferred from the locations of the galaxy lighthouses are similar. This agreement provides strong confirmation of the fundamental idea that structure developed from the growth of initially tiny fluctuations through gravitational attraction.

The cosmic velocity web analysis was led by Daniel Pomarede, Atomic Energy Center, France, with the collaboration of Helene Courtois at the University of Lyon, France; Yehuda Hoffman at the Hebrew University, Israel; and Brent Tully at the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy.

“With the motions of the galaxies, we can infer where all of the mass is located: the galaxies and the 5 times more abundant transparent matter (usually wrongly called dark matter). This total gravitating mass, together with the expansion of the universe, is responsible for the motions that create the architecture of the universe. The gravity from galaxies alone cannot create this network we see,” said Dr. Courtois.

Dr. Tully adds, “Moreover, a wide swath of the universe is hidden behind the obscuring disk of our own Milky Way galaxy. Our reconstruction of structure with the velocity web is revealing for the first time filaments of matter that stretch all the way around the sky and are easily followed through these regions of obscuration.”

This definition of the cosmic velocity web was made possible by the large and coherent collection of galaxy distances and velocities in the Cosmicflows series. The current analysis is based on a study of 8,000 galaxies in the second release of Cosmicflows. The third release, with over twice as many galaxy distances and velocities is already available, and will reveal the cosmic velocity web in increasingly rich detail.

The key element of the program is the acquisition of good distances to galaxies. Several methods are used, such as exploiting the known luminosities of old stars that are just beginning to burn Helium in their cores, and the relationship between the rotation speed of galaxies and the number of stars they possess. The observations have involved dozens of telescopes around the world and in space and at wavelengths from visible light through the infrared to radio.

“The velocity web method for mapping the cosmos is analogous to using plate tectonics in geology. It helps understand not just the current layout of the universe, but also the movement of the invisible underlying masses responsible for that topology,” said Dr. Courtois.

The team has produced an extensive video demonstrating the cosmic velocity web. It first explains the concepts underlying the cosmic velocity web reconstruction, followed by a description of its major elements. The video then shows how cosmic flows are organized within its structure, and how the basin of attraction of the recently mapped Laniakea Supercluster resides within its elements. In the final sequence, the viewer enters an immersive exploration of the filamentary structure of the local universe, navigating inside the filaments and visiting the major nodes such as the Great Attractor.

Measuring A Crucial Mineral In The Mantle

University of Delaware professor Jessica Warren and colleagues from Stanford University, Oxford University and University of Pennsylvania, reported new data that material size-effects matter in plate tectonics.

Plate tectonics, the way the Earth’s plates move apart and come back together, has been used since the 1960s to explain the location of volcanoes and earthquakes.

The study (link here) published Wednesday, Sept. 13 in the American Association for the Advancement of Science journal Science Advances, resolves 40 years of disagreement in datasets about the strength of olivine, the most abundant mineral found in the upper 250 miles or so of the Earth, known as the mantle.

“Measuring the strength of olivine is critical to understanding how strong tectonic plates are, which, in turn, matters to how plates break and create subduction zones like those along the Cascadia plate, which runs down the west coast of Canada to the west coast of the United States,” said Warren, a geologist in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment. It’s also important for understanding how plates move around over the million-year time scales.

The paper demonstrated that olivine’s strength is size-sensitive and that olivine is stronger the smaller the volume that is measured, something that has been known in materials science for many metals and ceramics, but has not been studied in a geological material before.

Warren explained that the problem with studying rocks on the earth’s surface is that they are no longer subjected to the high pressures found inside the earth that cause materials to flow (like ice in a glacier). Recreating these elevated pressures in the laboratory is difficult, making it hard for scientists to study material strength in the lab.

The researchers used a technique, called instrumented nanoindentation, to measure olivine’s strength. The technique allowed them to recreate pressure conditions similar to those inside the earth by pressing a diamond tip that was carefully machined to a specific geometry into the olivine crystal to measure the material’s response. The diamond tips ranged in size from 5 to 20 microns (0.000001 meter). The researchers performed hundreds of indentation tests on tiny olivine crystals less than a centimeter square and found that the olivine crystal became weaker as the size of the diamond tip increased.

To validate this size-effect, the researchers reviewed the available literature data on the strength of olivine to determine the sizes and areas that had been tested in previous experiments dating to the late 1970s. The size-effect showed up in the old data, too.

“The reason 40 years’ worth of data don’t agree from one experiment to the next is because scientists were measuring different sizes or areas of olivine,” Warren said. “But if you plot the same information as a function of the sample size, the datasets, in fact agree, and display the same general trend — the larger the indentation in the material tested, the weaker the olivine becomes.”

Now that Warren and her colleagues understand this size-effect, they are turning their attention to how temperature affects the strength of olivine, and more broadly, on where tectonic plates might break and give rise to potential subduction zones.

Temperatures inside the earth are much hotter than on the surface and can range from 1,470 to 2,200 degrees Fahrenheit (800 to 1,200 degrees Celsius).

The team also will consider what role water plays in the structure of olivine minerals and rocks in the earth. According to Warren, current estimates suggest the earth contains the equivalent of 50 percent to 4 times the amount of water found in the global ocean.

“When geologists look at how faults buckle and deform, it is at a very small length scale where conditions in size effect really matter, just like our olivine tests in the laboratory,” Warren said. “But this size effect disappears when you get to a large enough length scale on tectonic plates, so we need to consider other things like when temperature and water begin to play a role.”

BREAKING NEWS: Massive 8.2 Magnitude Quake Hits Off Coast of Southern Mexico

A massive 8.2 magnitude earthquake hit off the coast of southern Mexico late Thursday night, causing buildings to sway violently and people to flee into the streets in panic as far away as the capital city. The USGS reports their instruments measured slightly lower at 8.0 magnitude.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center registered the quake as measuring 8.2 magnitude at its epicenter located 165 kilometers (102 miles) west of Tapachula in southern Chiapas state not far from Guatemala. It had a depth of 35 kilometers (22 miles).

The PTWC reports tsunami waves have been observed. Based on all current data received, hazardous tsunami waves are forecast for local and regional coastal areas. Tsunami waves are reaching heights more than 3 meters high (9.8 feet).

The U.S. Tsunami Warning System said hazardous tsunami waves were possible on the Pacific coasts of several Central American countries. Waves were possible within the next three hours for Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras and Ecuador, it said. There was no tsunami threat for the U.S. West Coast.

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Time to Evaluate 2017 Solar Eclipse Prediction

First, let me say the reason you have not received updated articles over the last 8 or 9 days is that I was called in by the Emergency Management Office to help with Harvey.

Most of you already know I began my training back in 1995 with the Red Cross, and then in 1996 I switched to Emergency Management and trained to become a trainer. Anyway, I say this to let you know where I have been. Later I requested to be put on reserves, and eventually retired from services. But Harvey was a nasty one and they needed everyone they could get.

Now here comes ‘Irma’ registered as a Cat. 5 with 170-180 mph winds. It has now hit north of the Dominican Republic earlier today and appears to be heading towards south Florida. “Irma” has now claimed 13 lives and is directed toward the islands of Turks and Caicos. If Irma continues along this path, it will reach the Bahamas Friday morning.

I think it important to present a verbal visual to what a category 5 hurricane is and can do:

Cat. 5 – Sustained Winds – 157 mph or higher (252 km/h or higher) Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

More on Irma and other earth changing events coming tomorrow. I also do not want to lose sight of the civil unrest that has been occurring, and appears to be escalating for the near future.

Now let’s evaluate my 2017 Full Solar Eclipse prediction. Below I will write the exact words used on the very first article making my very very rare prediction.

July 21st 2017 – “History has shown a connection between eclipse events and an increase of earth changing events which include earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, and extreme weather events. My published research identifies it may be the rapid temperature variations which can cause a shift (however slight) to Earth’s lithosphere (upper mantle). The full eclipse can also cause rapid temperature variations with our Oceans causing a destabilizing (however slight) in local atmospheric conditions which could contribute to extreme weather event including the escalation of tropical storms to hurricanes”. Original Article – Click Here

There are other physical earth changing events of which I will lay out in coming articles. Now let’s take a look at the second component of my prediction as related to charged particles and human behavior. In my July 25th article I stated the following: “In coming articles I will address perhaps a less scientific direction which suggest the current mode of global political dysfunction, may have some roots in history showing a pattern of “what happens below, reflects what happens above”. This suggests the turmoil which results from earth changing events appears to be in-sync with emotional unrest. Continued scientific data will of course follow.” Full Article – Click Here.