Evidence for a Time-Lag in Solar Resonance of Galactic Cosmic Rays

The solar modulation effect of cosmic rays in the heliosphere is an energy, time, and particle dependent phenomenon that arises from a combination of basic particle transport processes such as diffusion, convection, adiabatic cooling, and drift motion.

Making use of a large collection of time-resolved cosmic-ray data from recent space missions, we construct a simple predictive model of solar modulation that depends on direct solar-physics inputs: the number of solar sunspots and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet.

Under this framework, we present calculations of cosmic-ray proton spectra, positron/electron and antiproton/proton ratios, and their time dependence in connection with the evolving solar activity. We report evidence for a time lag of approximately eight months, between solar-activity data and cosmic-ray flux measurements in space, which reflects the dynamics of the formation of the modulation region. This result enables us to forecast the cosmic-ray flux near Earth well in advance by monitoring solar activity.

Wind Speed Isn’t The Best Way To Measure Hurricane Ferocity

From 1 to 5, the numbers we use to categorize hurricanes are ingrained in the minds of millions of Americans from Texas to Maine.

But that famed Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, which only measures wind speed, is not the best way to gauge a storm’s ferocity, according to a study released Wednesday.

“Sandy is the classic example,” said Dan Chavas, an atmospheric scientist at Purdue University who led the study. “It was a very big storm, but in terms of maximum wind speed it was arguably not a hurricane.”

A better way involves barometric pressure, the study said. Specifically, it’s the difference in pressure between the center of the storm and outside it, which is officially known as the “central pressure deficit.”

“If you looked at the central pressure deficit, you would have expected Sandy to cause a lot of damage,” said Chavas. “But if you used maximum wind speed, as people usually do, you wouldn’t expect it to do the damage that it did.”

Sandy killed more than 150 people and caused $70.2 billion damage in the U.S., NOAA said.

Economic damages are better predicted by variations in central pressure than by peak storm wind speed since the central pressure combines both wind speed and storm size, the study found. The size of the storm is a critical factor in damage potential, particularly due to storm surge.

The limitations of the Saffir-Simpson scale have recently come under scrutiny. Wind speed is often only an estimate, and it’s also highly localized because it depends on a speed sustained for a short time in one location. However, it’s popular with the public and media because of its simplicity.

New ways of categorizing hurricanes have been proposed by many groups over the years, including the Hurricane Severity Index, the Cyclone Damage Potential Index and the Integrated Kinetic Energy Index. All take into account factors other than wind speed, the idea being that more variables make a scale more valuable. None have caught on yet.

The study appeared in the peer-reviewed British journal Nature Communications.

La Niña Is Here. What Does That Mean For Our Winter?

La Niña, the cooler sibling of El Niño, is here.

The La Niña climate pattern — a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the central Pacific Ocean — is one of the main drivers of weather in the U.S. and around the world, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring.

Federal government forecasters announced La Niña’s formation Thursday. The Climate Prediction Center says this year’s La Niña (translated from Spanish as “little girl”) is on the weak side, but it should still continue through the winter.

This is the second consecutive La Niña winter. Last year’s episode was unusually brief, forming in November and gone by February.

A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according to the prediction center. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic also tend to see warmer-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter.

New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see colder-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said.

Because La Niña shifts storm tracks, it often brings more snow to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. “Typically La Niña is not a big snow year in the mid-Atlantic,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “You have a better chance up in New England.”

Texas A&M University agricultural economist Bruce McCarl said La Niña years are often bad for agriculture in Texas and the surrounding region. U.S. production of most crops — except corn — generally goes down in La Niña years, according to research by McCarl.

Globally, La Niña often brings heavy rainfall to Indonesia, the Philippines, northern Australia and southern Africa.

The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a see-saw dance of warmer and cooler seawater in the central Pacific Ocean

2017 Hurricane Season Produces Most Reported Tornadoes in Nearly a Decade

2017 is now the fourth hurricane season since 1995 with tropical storms or hurricanes that produced more than 100 tornadoes. Only the 2005 (317), 2004 (238) and 2008 (139) hurricane seasons produced more tornadoes.

Most of the tornadoes associated with tropical cyclones develop in bands of thunderstorms and intense showers outside the eyewall about 50 to 250 miles from the hurricane or tropical storm center.

The majority of tornadoes spawned by tropical storms and hurricanes are short-lived and of the weaker EF0 or EF1 variety, but some can reach EF2 or EF3 intensity. Because of their short-lived nature, sometimes they can strike with little or no advance warning.

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 is the most prolific tornado-producing hurricane in U.S. weather history. A total of 120 tornadoes struck nine states from Florida to Pennsylvania in a three-day period.

But not all hurricanes generate a large number of tornadoes, as 2016’s Hurricane Matthew illustrated. Matthew only produced two EF0-rated tornadoes since the eastern side of the hurricane, which is favored for tornado development, remained offshore.

Powerful Magnitude 6.0 Earthquake Rocks Japan Sparking Tsunami Fears

The earthquake struck at around 4:42pm local tiime (7:42am UK time) 165km south east of Hachijo-jima, a volcanic Japanese island in the Philippine Sea.

The island, home to around 8,000 people, is approximately 287km south of Tokyo, Japan’s capital.

Powerful earthquakes are not unusual in Japan, which is situated on the Ring of Fire, where an estimated 80% of the world’s earthquakes strike.

There are no immediate reports of casualties or damaged buildings on the island or further afield on the Japanese mainland.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center is yet to issue any tsunami warnings.

The tremor came just 14 hours after a 4.6 magnitude eartthquake struck the same region, according to Earthquake Track.

The 20km deep earthquake struck a safe distance from Japan’s stricken Fukishima nuclear plant – which suffered a meltdown after a 9.0 earthquake hit in 2011.

The monstorous earthquake sent a tsunami racng towards Japan that flooded the reactor, causing three nuclear meltdowns.

At least 20,000 were killed and went missing as a result of the earthquake – the fourth-largest in world since measurements began in 1900.

A massive evacuation of the area was carried out and an exclusion zone was set up.

Residents have since been allowed back in some regions in smaller numbers.

The incident led Japan to close all 54 of its nuclear plants for a time, while five are now back online.

Surprise Solar Event and Galactic Cosmic Rays Associated with Ozone Hole Fluctuation

The fast flow associated with the northern extension Coronal Hole, which crossed the central meridian on Nov 4th has now arrived to Earth. The solar wind speed has increased up to the current value of 620 km/s, and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was observed mainly southward for a long period of time of more than 3 hours.

This strong southward field, concurrent with a fast solar wind produced a geomagnetic storm. NOAA reported the Kp event at level 6 and local stations at Dourbes reported K=5.  The high speed stream is expected to persist until Nov 10th and further minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are highly possible.

Ozone Fluctuation Caused by Galactic Cosmic Rays… 

Recent studies have presented evidence indicating cosmic rays, rather than solar winds play a dominant role in breaking down ozone-depleting molecules and then ozone. Cosmic rays are energy particles originating in space.

Ozone is a gas mostly concentrated in the ozone layer, a region located in the stratosphere several miles above the Earth’s surface. It absorbs almost all of the Sun’s high-frequency ultraviolet light, which is potentially damaging to life and causes such diseases as skin cancer and cataracts. The Antarctic ozone hole is larger than the size of North America.

More on Galactic Cosmic Rays Effect to Earth Coming Next…

 

Science Of Cycles Research Support Fund

 

_________________________

Science Of Cycles Multi-Disaster Relief Initiative

Be a part of Science Of Cycles Multi-Disaster Relief Initiative. Lets come together and help those who need a helping hand. Notice I did not specify a hurricane name, why? Because there is more than Harvey and Irma heading our way. The banner is set up for you to be able to place any amount you wish.   Cheers, Mitch

 

 

Scientists Discover Hidden Chamber in Egypt’s Great Pyramid

Scientists say they have found a hidden chamber in Egypt’s Great Pyramid of Giza, in what would be the first such discovery in the structure since the 19th century and one likely to spark a new surge of interest in the pharaohs.

In an article published in the journal Nature on Thursday, an international team said the 30-meter void deep within the pyramid is situated above the structure’s Grand Gallery, and has a similar cross-section.

The purpose of the space is unclear, and it’s not yet known whether it was built with a function in mind or if it’s merely a gap in the pyramid’s architecture. Some experts say such empty spaces have been known for years.

“This is a premier,” said Mehdi Tayoubi, a co-founder of the ScanPyramids project and president of the Heritage Innovation Preservation Institute. “It could be composed of one or several structures… maybe it could be another Grand Gallery. It could be a chamber, it could be a lot of things.”

The scientists made the discovery using cosmic-ray imaging, recording the behavior of subatomic particles called muons that penetrate the rock similar to X-rays, only much deeper. Their paper was peer-reviewed before appearing in Nature, an international, interdisciplinary journal of science, and its results confirmed by other teams of scientists.

Chances of the space containing treasure or burial chambers are almost nil, said Aidan Dodson, an Egyptologist at the University of Bristol, but the discovery helps shed light on building techniques.

“The pyramid’s burial chamber and sarcophagus have already been discovered, so this new area was more likely kept empty above the Grand Gallery to reduce the weight of stone pressing down on its ceiling,” he said, adding that similar designs have been found in other pyramids.

Egypt’s former antiquities minister and famed archaeologist Zahi Hawass, who has been testing scanning methods and heads the government’s oversight panel for the new techniques, said that the area in question has been known of for years and thus does not constitute a discovery. He has long downplayed the usefulness of scans of ancient sites.

“The Great Pyramid is full of voids. We have to be careful how results are presented to the public,” he said, adding that one problem facing the international team is that it did not have an Egyptologist as a member. He said the chamber was likely empty space builders used to construct the rooms below.

“In order to construct the Grand Gallery, you had to have a hollow, or a big void in order to access it—you cannot build it without such a space,” he said. “Large voids exist between the stones and may have been left as construction gaps.”

The pyramid is also known as Khufu’s Pyramid for its builder, a 4th Dynasty pharaoh who reigned from 2509 to 2483 B.C. Visitors to the pyramid, on the outskirts of Cairo, can walk, hunched over, up a long tunnel to reach the Grand Gallery. The space announced by the scanning team does not appear to be connected to any known internal passages.

Scientists involved in the scanning called the find a “breakthrough” that highlighted the usefulness of modern particle physics in archaeology.

“It was hidden, I think, since the construction of the pyramid,” Tayoubi added.

The Great Pyramid, the last surviving wonder of the ancient world, has captivated visitors since it was built as a royal burial chamber some 4,500 years ago. Experts are still divided over how it and other pyramids were constructed, so even relatively minor discoveries generate great interest.

Late last year, thermal scanning identified a major anomaly in the Great Pyramid with three adjacent stones at its base which registered higher temperatures than others.

Speculation that King Tutankhamun’s tomb contains additional antechambers stoked interest in recent years, before scans by ground-penetrating radar and other tools came up empty, raising doubts about the claim.

The muon scan is accomplished by planting special plates inside and around the pyramid to collect data on the particles, which rain down from the earth’s atmosphere. They pass through empty spaces but can be absorbed or deflected by harder surfaces, allowing scientists to study their trajectories and discern what is stone and what is not. Several plates were used to triangulate the void discovered in the Great Pyramid.

While the technology can detect large open spaces, it cannot discern what is inside, so it’s unclear if the empty space contains any objects. Tayoubi said the team plans now to work with others to come up with hypotheses about the area.

“The good news is that the void is there, and it’s very big,” he said.