Month: June 2019

Part – IX  The Mysterious South Atlantic Anomaly

What could be described as the epicenter of Earth’s weakening magnetic field, is known as the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). The region of the SAA is the result of a decaying dipole geomagnetic field which is now so pronounced that it allows the close approach of Earth’s radiation streams known as the Van Allen belt. The magnetic field strength is so weak in this region it is a hazard for airplanes and satellites to fly or orbit near this sector because the high cosmic radiation in this area can destroy electronic and human cells.

Earth’s magnetic field is created by convecting iron in our planet’s liquid inner core. In the SAA zone where Earth’s liquid inner core meets the more viscous outer core, the polarity of the field is opposite to the average global magnetic field. If we were able to use a compass deep under southern Africa, we would see that the magnetic field has already reversed – when facing north our compass would be pointing south.

In archaeo-magnetic studies we find geophysicists have teamed up with archaeologists, to learn about the past magnetic field. Clay used to make pottery contains small amounts of magnetic minerals, such as magnetite. Regarding the Southern Hemisphere, data was collected from ancestral tribes in southern Africa which had lived in huts built of clay. Just as in the case of the firing and cooling of pottery, the clay in these structures recorded Earth’s magnetic field as they cooled.

Over the last decade, researchers have accumulated images from the analyses of earthquakes seismic waves. As seismic shear waves move through the Earth’s layers, the speed with which they travel is an indication of the density of the layer. Now we know that a large area of slow seismic shear waves characterizes the core mantle boundary beneath southern Africa. It is known that regions of reversed flux at the core-mantle boundary have grown over time. New studies suggest the area known as the South Atlantic Anomaly, may be primarily responsible for the decay in the main dipolar field. This reverse patch is also responsible for the minimum in field strength now centered over South America.

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Science Of Cycles keeps you tuned-in and knowledgeable of what we are discovering, and how some of these changes will affect our communities and ways of living.

 

BREAKING NEWS: NASA Predicts Solar Cycle 25 Weakest in Last 200 Years

The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. Research now underway has found a more reliable new method to predict this space weather. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot numbers, could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one – Cycle 24. The results show the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.

The new research was led by Irina Kitiashvili, a researcher with the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA’s Ames Research Center, in California’s Silicon Valley. It combined observations from two NASA space missions; Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory with data collected since 1976 from the ground-based National Solar Observatory.

One challenge for researchers working to predict the Sun’s activities is that scientists do not yet completely understand the inner workings of our star. Some factors that play out deep inside the Sun cannot be measured directly. They have to be estimated from measurements of related phenomena on the solar surface like sunspots, coronal holes and filaments.

Kitiashvili’s method differs from other prediction tools in terms of the raw material for its forecast. Previously, researchers used the number of sunspots to represent indirectly the activity of the solar magnetic field. The new approach takes advantage of direct observations of magnetic fields emerging on the surface of the Sun.

NASA has been assigned to procure American astronauts to the Moon in the next five years with a landing on the lunar South Pole. With a calm and quiet space weather forecast for the coming decade, it is a great time to explore.

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Science Of Cycles keeps you tuned-in and knowledgeable of what we are discovering, and how some of these changes will affect our communities and ways of living.

 

Part-VIII Just Where Are We in this Cycle of Magnetic Reversal?

Here we are now, in Part VIII of this series, and I would think a great question to ask would be “Where in this layered multitude of decadal, centennial, and millennial magnetic reversal cycles are we?” Current studies suggest we are further along the process indicating we could be just several decades, or perhaps a century or two away from a full magnetic reversal. Like all historic magnetic reversals, the process takes a few thousand years to develop. With each passing decade from the previous cycle, the intensity of charged particles increase as the Earth’s magnetic field decreases.

My research suggest the current influx of cosmic rays has increased over the last few decades, with noticeable increase over the last two years. Data from the Swarm satellite have shown the magnetic field is starting to weaken faster than in the past. Previously, researchers estimated the field was weakening about 5 percent per century, but the new data revealed the field is actually weakening at 5 percent per decade, or 10 times faster than thought. As such, rather than the full flip occurring in about 2,000 years, as was predicted, the new data suggest it could happen much sooner.

Historically, during extended solar minimum cycles which could range from 40,000 years to 700,000 years – each being its own cycle within a cycle, could be a contributing factor in historic global extinctions. I would ascertain and with using minimal consideration, you might have surmised a large part of my research is the study of cycles, hence, my company’s title Science Of Cycles.

Ѡ We have reached the halfway point for this project thanks to you. Now just short $500, perhaps there are five member supporters who could help out. But of course whatever each of you can contribute is welcome. btw, this multi-part series has taken notice by a few in our highly recognized scientific bodies.  CLICK HERE

An instinctive second and third question you might inquire would be: “What do we look for and what actually happens related to a magnetic shift?” I would suggest that perhaps within the next 20-30 years, there will be people alive today who will witness the process of magnetic north bouncing around the northern hemisphere above 60° latitude and swing between 30° east and 30° west longitudes. Furthermore, there will be some of you who are young enough to witness a more pronounced swing in both latitude and longitude as magnetic north will drop below the equator then bounce back within the next 50-60 years.

For a full polarity reversal to occur, the magnetic field needs to weaken by about 90% to a threshold level. This process can take thousands of years, and during this time, the lack of a protective magnetic shield around our planet allows more cosmic rays – high-energy particles mostly from within our galaxy Milky Way, but also from neighboring galaxies, will be able to penetrate our solar system and Earth. When this happens, these cosmic rays collide with more and more atoms in our atmosphere, such as nitrogen and oxygen. This produces variants of elements called cosmogenic isotopes, such as carbon-14 and beryllium-10, which fall to the surface. This provides a method of tracking reversals of the past, which helps assess future events.

Part – IX  The Mysterious South Atlantic Anomaly

Site Of Biggest Ever Meteorite Collision In The UK Discovered

Scientists believe they have discovered the site of the biggest meteorite impact ever to hit the British Isles.

Evidence for the ancient, 1.2 billion years old, meteorite strike, was first discovered in 2008 near Ullapool, NW Scotland by scientists from Oxford and Aberdeen Universities. The thickness and extent of the debris deposit they found suggested the impact crater — made by a meteorite estimated at 1km wide — was close to the coast, but its precise location remained a mystery.

In a paper published today in Journal of the Geological Society, a team led by Dr Ken Amor from the Department of Earth Sciences at Oxford University, show how they have identified the crater location 15-20km west of a remote part of the Scottish coastline. It is buried beneath both water and younger rocks in the Minch Basin.

Dr Ken Amor said: ‘The material excavated during a giant meteorite impact is rarely preserved on Earth, because it is rapidly eroded, so this is a really exciting discovery. It was purely by chance this one landed in an ancient rift valley where fresh sediment quickly covered the debris to preserve it.

‘The next step will be a detailed geophysical survey in our target area of the Minch Basin.’

Using a combination of field observations, the distribution of broken rock fragments known as basement clasts and the alignment of magnetic particles, the team was able to gauge the direction the meteorite material took at several locations, and plotted the likely source of the crater.

Dr Ken Amor said: ‘It would have been quite a spectacle when this large meteorite struck a barren landscape, spreading dust and rock debris over a wide area.’

1.2 billion years ago most of life on Earth was still in the oceans and there were no plants on the land. At that time Scotland would have been quite close to the equator and in a semi-arid environment. The landscape would have looked a bit like Mars when it had water at the surface.

Earth and other planets may have suffered a higher rate of meteorite impacts in the distant past, as they collided with debris left over from the formation of the early solar system.

However, there is a possibility that a similar event will happen in the future given the number of asteroid and comet fragments floating around in the solar system. Much smaller impacts, where the meteorite is only a few meters across are thought to be relatively common perhaps occurring about once every 25 years on average.

It is thought that collisions with an object about 1 km (as in this instance) across occur between once every 100,000 years to once every one million years — but estimates vary.

One of the reasons for this is that our terrestrial record of large impacts is poorly known because craters are obliterated by erosion, burial and plate tectonics.

Extinct Volcano Has Woken Up And Scientists Say It Could Erupt ‘At Any Moment’

A volcano in the far eastern corner of Russia that was previously considered extinct may be waking up — and an eruption could be catastrophic.

The Bolshaya Udina volcano — part of the Kamchatka Peninsula’s Udina volcanic complex — was believed to be extinct until 2017, when increasing seismic activity was detected beneath it, scientists say.

Now, Ivan Koulakov, a geophysicist from Russia’s A.A. Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics who led a study into the volcano, believes it should be reclassified as active.

“At any moment, an eruption can occur,” Koulakov told CNN.

Between 1999 and September 2017, about 100 weak seismic events were detected beneath the volcano, which stands at 9,590 feet above sea level.

An “anomalous increase” in seismicity, however, began in October 2017. Between October 2017 and February 2019, about 2,400 seismic events were recorded.

February saw an earthquake of 4.3 magnitude occur under Udina — the strongest seismic event ever to occur in the area.

Researchers from Russia, Egypt and Saudi Arabia conducted a study of the volcano last year between May and July, which was published in the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research.

Installing four temporary seismic monitoring stations around Bolshaya Udina, the researchers recorded and analyzed 559 seismic events.

An “elliptical cluster” of seismic activity had formed around the volcano, they determined, with seismic events taking place more than three miles beneath the surface.

“These seismic properties may indicate the presence of magma intrusions with a high content of […] fluids, which may justify changing the current status of this volcano from ‘extinct’ to ‘active,'” the researchers wrote.

Moreover, they observed that the cluster of seismic events connected the volcano with the Tolud zone, to the south of the volcano, a region believed to store magma in the Earth’s lower crust. The Tolud zone was now feeding Bolshaya Udina with magma, they concluded, thanks to a new pathway that developed in 2018.

Bolshaya Udina shares structural characteristics with another formerly extinct volcano in the region, the Bezymianny, which erupted dramatically in 1956, Koulakov told CNN.

There is around a 50% chance that Bolshaya Udina will erupt, he said.
“Or it could just release the energy smoothly over a few months, or it may just disappear without any eruption,” he said.

If the volcano does erupt, it could pose a significant threat to the small villages nearby, he said, though he added: “There are not many people around.”

Mount Sinabung: Volcano Eruption Warnings After Huge Column Of Ash Prompts Panic In Indonesia

A huge column of ash was blasted almost five miles into the sky above the Indonesian island of Sumatra after an active volcano erupted.

Mount Sinabung blew for nine minutes on Sunday, causing panic among the island’s residents.

Indonesian officials warned that further volcanic activity was possible, although the volanco’s alert level remained unchanged.

“After the eruption, from midnight until 6 am, there were a few aftershocks,” said Willy, a scientist at a Sinabung observatory.

Residents have been told to stay indoors and to wear face masks, if venturing outside, to protect themselves from volcanic ashfall.

Standing at 2,460m tall, Sinabung was inactive for around 400 years before it erupted in 2010, killing two people.

Since then it has become one of south east Asian nation’s most active volcanoes.

More than a dozen people were killed and thousands were forced to flee when it erupted in 2014 and during a February 2018 eruption it released a plume of ash which blew away much of its summit.

The volcanic activity was accompanied by multiple earthquakes felt in nearby villages.

No casualties have been reported in the latest eruption.

Indonesia has nearly 130 active volcanoes, more than any other country.

It is particularly prone to seismic activity due to its location on the “Ring of Fire,” an arc of volcanoes and fault lines encircling the Pacific Basin.

NOAA Predicts Near-Normal 2019 Hurricane Season

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center is predicting that a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. This outlook forecasts a 40 percent chance of a near normal season, a 30 percent chance of an above normal season and a 30 percent chance of a below normal season. The hurricane season officially extends from June 1 to Nov. 30.

For 2019, NOAA predicts a likely range of nine to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including two to four major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70 percent confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

“With the 2019 hurricane season upon us, NOAA is leveraging cutting edge tools to help secure Americans against the threat posed by hurricanes and tropical cyclones across both the Atlantic and Pacific,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross.

“Throughout hurricane season, dedicated NOAA staff will remain on alert for any dan-ger to American lives and communities.”

This outlook reflects competing climate factors. The ongoing El Niño is expected to persist and suppress the intensity of the hurricane season. Countering El Niño is the expected combination of warmer than av-erage sea surface temperatures in the trop-ical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which favor increased hurricane activity.

“New satellite data and other upgrades to products and services from NOAA enable a more Weather-Ready Nation by providing the public and decision makers with the information needed to take action before, during, and after a hurricane,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator.

The 2019 hurricane season marks the first time NOAA’s fleet of Earth observ-
ing satellites includes three operational next generation satellites. Unique and valuable data from these satellites feed the hurricane forecast models used by forecasters to help users make critical decisions days in advance.

NOAA’s National Weather Service is making a planned upgrade to its Global Forecast System (GFS) flagship weather model — often called the American model — early in the 2019 hurricane season. This marks the first major upgrade to the dynamical core of the model in almost 40 years and will improve tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. “NOAA is driving toward a community based devel opment program for future weather and climate modeling to deliver the very best forecasts, by leveraging new investments in research and working with the weather enterprise,” added Jacobs.

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and NWS office in San Juan will expand the coastal storm surge watches and warnings in 2019 to include Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. In addition, NHC will display excessive rainfall outlooks on its website, providing greater visibility of one of the most dangerous inland threats from hurricanes.

Also, this season, NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft will collect higher-resolution data from upgraded onboard radar systems. These enhanced observations will be transmitted in near-real time to hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and forecasters at NWS Weather Forecast Offices.

In addition to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins. A 70 percent chance of an above normal season is predicted for both the eastern and central Pacific regions. The eastern Pacific outlook calls for a 70 percent probability of 15 to 22 named storms, of which eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes, including four to eight major hurricanes. The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70 percent probability of five to eight tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Hurricane preparedness is critically important for the 2019 hurricane season, just as it is every year. Visit the National Hurricane Center’s website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season to stay current on any watches and warnings.

“Preparing ahead of a disaster is the responsibility of all levels of government, the private sector, and the public,” said Daniel Kaniewski, Ph.D., FEMA deputy administrator for resilience. “It only takes one event to devastate a community so now is the time to prepare. Do you have cash on hand? Do you have adequate insurance, including flood insurance? Does your family have communication and evacuation plans? Stay tuned to your local news and download the FEMA app to get alerts, and make sure you heed any warnings issued by local officials.”