Tag: Maunder Minimum

Part IV – Cycles Within Cycles, Within Cycles and ‘Science Of Cycles’

Here I am writing, then re-writing and then re-writing again. Partly because I find this exploratory research exhilarating, partly because it affirms the direction I chose to follow beginning mostly in 2012. And of course new information which was not available just a few years ago, and then formulating these strings of thought which has brought on a few spattering of “You’re kidding, no way, I thought so, and just plain wow”. Once again, as in my research of the Sun-Earth connection, but to a less noticeable degree, the right hand was not quite sure what the left hand was doing or aware of.

Those of you familiar with my first book “Solar Rain” will remember how I conveyed my unexpected surprise, when I realized how two of our greatest scientific bodies – NASA and NOAA, simply did not communicate with each other leaving me with no choice but to run back and forth as I pieced together NASA’s knowledge of space, and NOAA’s knowledge weather. When you put the two together you have “space-weather”.

A recent study published in the science journal ‘Nature’, indicates a direct connection between the acceleration of charged particles such as galactic cosmic rays and its effect on humans and animals. Charged particles come in many forms. From the Sun, they come in the form of solar flares, CMEs (coronal mass ejections), coronal holes, filament, and gamma ray burst. The more powerful and damaging particles are the galactic cosmic rays which comes from outside our solar system. These subatomic particles, made up of around ninety percent protons move through space at close to the speed of light. Magnetic fields deflect and distort the path of the particles, making it near impossible to determine their point of origin. Collision of stars, supernovae, even dark matter have all been named as a possible source.

Note: If you find this information of interest and useful, please consider supporting us with your donations. I am also looking for a sponsors that would help carrying this important research forward. Go to the click here button to support this work.                              CLICK HERE

As mentioned previously, during times of high solar activity (expansion), cosmic rays are better reflected from entering Earth’s atmosphere. However, during times of low solar activity (contraction), cosmic rays are far more abundant therefore have the potential to cause significant damage to our planet and all those living on it. Moreover, when you factor in the two current events happening concurrently, the scenario adds anecdotal averment of how far along this cycle we reside. First) A weakening magnetic field diminishing 10x faster than original estimates. Second) Evidence of an extended solar minimum which is going beyond one, two, three, or possibly more cycles allowing a profusion of galactic cosmic rays entering our atmosphere, with the higher energy particles penetrating deep into the Lithosphere, Mantle, and some research says right through the other side.

When scenario’s such as this occur, one must go beyond the better known short-term cycles comprised of averaging 11 yr. and 22 yr-cyl; while looking deeper into the less known medium ‘extended cycles’ such as the Milankovitch Cycle, the Laschamp Event, and the Maunder Minimum indicating that some cycles commingle while others supplant with periodicities ranging from Maunder’s 60-70 yr-cyl, to Laschamp’s 40,000 and 60,000 yr-cyl, to Milankovitch’s 23,000, 41,000, and 100,000 yr-cyl.

Then we have long-term cycles which can be traced back 550 million years.

*My eyes hurt, I have to stop here. I will pick it up tomorrow with “long-term cycles”

 

Part-III Addendum to (First Will Come Reversal Excursions Then the Flip)

The episodic nature of the Earth’s glacial and interglacial periods within the present Ice Age (the last couple of million years) have been caused primarily by cyclical changes in the Earth’s circumnavigation of the Sun. Variations in the Earth’s eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession comprise the three dominant cycles, collectively known as the Milankovitch Cycles for Milutin Milankovitch, the Serbian astronomer and mathematician who is generally credited with calculating their magnitude. Taken in unison, variations in these three cycles creates alterations in the seasonality of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface. These times of increased or decreased solar radiation directly influence the Earth’s climate system, thus impacting the advance and retreat of Earth’s glaciers.

Note: If you find this information of interest and useful, please consider supporting us with your donations. I am also looking for a sponsors that would help caring this important research forward. Go to the click here button to support this work.    CLICK HERE

The first of the three Milankovitch Cycles is Earth’s axial tilt. It is the inclination of the Earth’s axis in relation to its plane of orbit around the Sun. Oscillations in the degree of Earth’s axial tilt occur on a periodicity of 41,000 years from 21.5 to 24.5 degrees. Today the Earth’s axial tilt is about 23.5 degrees, which largely accounts for our seasons.  Because of the periodic variations of this angle the severity of the Earth’s seasons changes. With less axial tilt the Sun’s solar radiation is more evenly distributed between winter and summer. However, less tilt also increases the difference in radiation receipts between the equatorial and Polar Regions.

The second principle of the Milankovitch Cycle is Earth’s precession. Precession is the Earth’s slow wobble as it spins on axis. This wobbling of the Earth on its axis can be likened to a top running down, and beginning to wobble back and forth on its axis. The precession of Earth wobbles from pointing at Polaris (North Star) to pointing at the star Vega. When this shift to the axis pointing at Vega occurs, Vega would then be considered the North Star. This top-like wobble, or precession, has a periodicity of 23,000 years.

The third principle of the Milankovitch Cycles is the Earth’s eccentricity. Eccentricity is, simply, the shape of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. This constantly fluctuating, orbital shape ranges between more and less elliptical (0 to 5% ellipticity) on a cycle of about 100,000 years. These oscillations, from more elliptic to less elliptic, are of prime importance to glaciation in that it alters the distance from the Earth to the Sun, thus changing the distance the Sun’s short wave radiation must travel to reach Earth, subsequently reducing or increasing the amount of radiation received at the Earth’s surface in different seasons.

JUST IN: Researchers Find Deep Ocean Getting Colder

A pair of researchers, one with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the other Harvard University, has found evidence of deep ocean cooling that is likely due to the Little Ice Age. In their paper published in the journal Science, Jake Gebbie and Peter Huybers describe their study of Pacific Ocean temperatures over the past 150 years and what they found.

The model showed that the Pacific Ocean cooled over the course of the 20th century at depths of 1.8 to 2.6 kilometers. The amount is still not precise, but the researchers suggest it is most likely between 0.02 and 0.08° C. That cooling, the researchers suggest, is likely due to the Little Ice Age, which ran from approximately 1300 until approximately 1870. Prior to that, there was a time known as the Medieval Warm Period, which had caused the deep waters of the Pacific to warm just prior to the cooling it is now experiencing.

Prior research has suggested that it takes a very long time for water in the Pacific Ocean to circulate down to its lowest depths. This is because it is replenished only from the south, which means it takes a very long time for water on the surface to make its way to the bottom – perhaps as long as several hundred years. That is what Gebbie and Huber found back in 2012. That got them to thinking that water temperature at the bottom of the Pacific could offer a hint of what surface temperatures were like hundreds of years ago.

To find out if that truly was the case, the researchers obtained data from an international consortium called the Argo Program – a group of people who together have been taking ocean measurements down to depths of approximately two kilometers. As a comparative reference, the researchers also obtained data gathered by the crew of the HMS Challenger – they had taken Pacific Ocean temperatures down to a depth of two kilometers during the years 1872 to 1876. The researchers used the data from both projects to build a computer model meant to mimic the circulation of water in the Pacific Ocean over the past century and a half.

Super Grand Solar Minimum Hypothesis Considered

Professor Valentina Zharkova gave a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in October, 2018.

Zharkova models solar sunspot and magnetic activity. Her models have run at a 93% accuracy and her findings suggest a Super Grand Solar Minimum could begin in 2020.

A Super Grand Solar Minimum would have four magnetic fields out of phase. There was about 40-60 years of cold weather 350 years ago. This was a Maunder Minimum of lower solar activity. The historical cold weather had two magnetic fields out of phase.

Zharkova is predicting a cooling effect that is 2.5 to 4 times larger than the Maunder minimum. Zharkova’s analysis shows an 8 watts per square meter decrease in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance). A 2015 Nature study looked at 2 watts per square meter decrease causing a 0.13-degree celsius effect. A four times larger effect would be 0.5-degree celsius.

Zharkova believes the warming models are including the warming effect of increased solar activity. If she is correct there would be cooling and the warming models would be wrong.

Numerous studies have identified links between past climate and solar variability. During the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), very few sunspots were seen despite regular observations. If the past relationships between TSI and ultraviolet irradiance and sunspots are the same as are observed for modern solar variability, then a decline in both TSI and ultraviolet for this period can be assumed.

The Maunder Minimum coincided with more severe winters in the UK and continental Europe and many reconstructions suggest atmospheric conditions were broadly comparable with the regional effects on European atmospheric circulation found here. Some modeling studies also support the idea that similar regional cooling and circulation changes occurred during this period.